Sun goes cold - get your overcoat out

[kentuckydan]

Our spotless sun - get ready for global cooling (http://senseofevents.blogspot.com/2008/09/sun-goes-cold-get-your-overcoat-out.html)


I've pointed out before that a huge influence on earth's tempaertures is the sun, specifically sunspot activity. The more sunspots, the warmer the earth. Daily Tech reports that now the sun has tied a 94-year-old record: an entire month has passed without a single spot on the sun.

According to data from Mount Wilson Observatory, UCLA, more than an entire month has passed without a spot. The last time such an event occurred was June of 1913. Sunspot data has been collected since 1749. ...

... In the past 1000 years, three previous such events -- the Dalton, Maunder, and Spörer Minimums, have all led to rapid cooling. On was large enough to be called a "mini ice age". For a society dependent on agriculture, cold is more damaging than heat. The growing season shortens, yields drop, and the occurrence of crop-destroying frosts increases.
The relationship between sunspots and earth's climate is not fully understood, although the correlations are so strong over several centuries of empirical data that practically no scientist of the field doubts the relationship.

[Lucker]

Mr Smutty ,
Thank you for your timely warning as the shops desperately regale us with their Autumn collections --- I do like the Aubergine colour look !!
We have had such chats not that long ago and I always was one of those who gravely doubted the wild and often fraudulent claims of the Earth Warming Money Making Brigade .
At school we were shown how sun spot activity led to increased short term temperature change in the last decade of a century and over the first decade of the following one -- in broad terms .
I have never seen anything which disputed that , so ERGO ............. I consider the case unproven and I am not aware that the next mini ice age is due .We apparently had one in the Middle Ages and to have another so soon after is mind boggling in terms of the wider picture . Statistically speaking that is .

[Voobrazheniye]

So... the next, obvious question must be: what dastardly act did the United States commit to cause this critical lack of sun spots?

[kentuckydan]

I have never seen anything which disputed that , so ERGO ............. I consider the case unproven and I am not aware that the next mini ice age is due .We apparently had one in the Middle Ages and to have another so soon after is mind boggling in terms of the wider picture . Statistically speaking that is .

Well statistically speaking there appears to be 400 year cylces, but the last mini Ice Age the Maunder Minimum was not in the Middle Ages

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_minimum

The Maunder Minimum is the name given to the period roughly from 1645 to 1715, when sunspots became exceedingly rare, as noted by solar observers of the time. It is named after the solar astronomer Edward W. Maunder (1851–1928) who discovered the dearth of sunspots during that period by studying records from those years. During one 30-year period within the Maunder Minimum, for example, astronomers observed only about 50 sunspots, as opposed to a more typical 40,000–50,000 spots.

The Maunder Minimum coincided with the middle — and coldest part — of the Little Ice Age, during which Europe and North America, and perhaps much of the rest of the world, were subjected to bitterly cold winters. Whether there is a causal connection between low sunspot activity and cold winters is the subject of ongoing debate


Carbon14_with_activity_labels.svg

[kentuckydan]

Graphs of Interglacial cycles

[kentuckydan]

The Present Cycle

[kentuckydan]

Temperature ranges and CO2 levels for this cycle of life since the Pre-Cambrian Die Off.

Oh and an interesting note, from a BBC documentary I viewed recently, The largest Mass Extinction since the Great Mass Extinction of the Dinosaurs occurred whnn the polar regions froze over.

[Lucker]

Kentucky
I have not the time or sufficient dedication to dispute figures .
All I do know is that the River Thames froze as did all the people and this period is generally -- and certainly at a popular level -- known as a mini ice age .

[kentuckydan]

Kentucky
I have not the time or sufficient dedication to dispute figures .
All I do know is that the River Thames froze as did all the people and this period is generally -- and certainly at a popular level -- known as a mini ice age .

Yes it was quite cold during that time period and before during what is called the Medieval Warm Period much warmer.

Recently receding glacier in Switzerland I believe have uncovered evidence of Medieval habitat, Now unless a claim is made that the people of the time dug under those glaciers to live and mine, one is left with the conclusion there was a time in the not too distant past when the glaciers did not extend as far as they do now, and that time preceeds any effect Man could have on the Global Climate with Industrialization.

As a matter of fact there were some VERY extreme weather events during the Time of the Mini Ice Age for instance

8C1CKKhN7ng

I put it to our European members if an exttreme weather event were to occur today
around the last week or so of May that left a meter of hail on the ground froze rivers and blackened and killed all the leaves on the trees and all the crops in the fields.

What would be the repercussions?

[pouffe]

The Gulf Stream is dangerously decelerated...

The see ice and the continental ice melt in Arctic, and the impact on the slowing down of the Gulf Stream is confirmed. Several scientists issue the hypothesis now of a major climatic disaster which could arrive fast (10 years), further to a violent break of the Gulf Stream.

[kentuckydan]

The Gulf Stream is dangerously decelerated...

The see ice and the continental ice melt in Arctic, and the impact on the slowing down of the Gulf Stream is confirmed. Several scientists issue the hypothesis now of a major climatic disaster which could arrive fast (10 years), further to a violent break of the Gulf Stream.


The Arctic Icemelt appears to be reversing, global temperatures have been flat or falling for the last ten years,

Arctic Ice Grows 30 Per Cent In a Year (http://www.prisonplanet.com/arctic-ice-grows-30-per-cent-in-a-year.html)

Predictions of “ice free” summer for first time in history completely debunked
Paul Joseph Watson
Prison Planet
Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Alarmist scientists who predicted that the North Pole could be “ice free” this summer as a result of global warming have been embarrassed after it was revealed that Arctic ice has actually grown by around 30 per cent in the year since August 2007.

Back in June, numerous prominent voices in the scientific community expressed fears of a mass melting of the polar ice caps, including David Barber, of the University of Manitoba, who told National Geographic Magazine, “We’re actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time [in history].”

“This summer’s forecast—and unusual early melting events all around the Arctic—serve as a dire warning of how quickly the polar regions are being affected by climate change,” adds the article.

(ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW)

It would also appear some who have gone north to illustrate the Ice Free North Pole have been getting their boats stuck in the ice

Adventures in Arctic Kayaking - Update: we’re stuck (http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/09/03/adventures-in-arctic-kayaking/)

[Lucker]

Looking at your Present Cycle graph , the cold blips seem to be 3, 8, 10.25 and 18000 years ago .
If I am understanding matters , there is no useful pattern in that progression .

More interesting to me was sitting out in our Indian Summer and finding this gem again from our resident anti heating balloon pricker , Christopher Booker .
He references the famous average temperature "hockey stick " graph where the hitting bit corresponds to vastly increased recent temperatures --- the stick is laid on its side and seen in profile .It purports to show huge mean increases in the last (?) 20 years .
This graph , which has been paraded everywhere , is the most discredited artefact in the history of science thanks to the devastating critique by Steve Mc Intyre .He showed that the graph's creators had an algorithm in their programme which could produce the hockey stick shape whatever data was fed in .
Effing incredible if true , and I am sure it is given the easy checks that can be made and Mr Bookers tremendous reputation for hunting out the truth and nothing but .

[Lucky]

dont grow a tree of sadnes
enjoy the ray of the sun
drink wine... love... treat... care... sing and dance...
u arent allowed to live forever...

what have to be - will be...

[IamKeenan]

So... the next, obvious question must be: what dastardly act did the United States commit to cause this critical lack of sun spots?

hahahahaha.. Right on Brother!!!!!!!:lol::lol::lol::lol:


Come on Degrassa give it to us--I know you have something to say:lol::lol::lol::lol:

[kentuckydan]

Looking at your Present Cycle graph , the cold blips seem to be 3, 8, 10.25 and 18000 years ago .
If I am understanding matters , there is no useful pattern in that progression .

More interesting to me was sitting out in our Indian Summer and finding this gem again from our resident anti heating balloon pricker , Christopher Booker .
He references the famous average temperature "hockey stick " graph where the hitting bit corresponds to vastly increased recent temperatures --- the stick is laid on its side and seen in profile .It purports to show huge mean increases in the last (?) 20 years .
This graph , which has been paraded everywhere , is the most discredited artefact in the history of science thanks to the devastating critique by Steve Mc Intyre .He showed that the graph's creators had an algorithm in their programme which could produce the hockey stick shape whatever data was fed in .
Effing incredible if true , and I am sure it is given the easy checks that can be made and Mr Bookers tremendous reputation for hunting out the truth and nothing but .

That may be because it is not a simple cyclic pattern but a heterodyne or beat pattern comprised by the summation of several different patterns 40 y, 400y, 1500 y cycles etc/

On of the pieces of electronic equipement I have worked on in the past had a two frequency pattern it looked a bit like this.

Excuse my free hand sloppiness, now picuture this simple two frequency pattern super imposed on one or more patterns of longer wavelength. where the patterns add the amplitude will be larger either in the negative or positivie direction, and there will be intermediate effects where some applitudes add and some subtract

Climatic cycles are a very complex function of sever frequencies of different wavelength/duration.

[Lucker]

Mr Ken Smutty
Are you pulling the proverbial ?
I looked at a graph which showed four "lows" but no simple pattern .
Your response was along the lines , but think "chaotically " and look underneath ......
I am happy to accept that thinking principle but do not have the maths expertise to sensibly comment .
However , it worries me that you defend "your" position on a raw data start of only four points .
I would be thinking , this is a Booker type scenario along the lines of , " Hang on a minute Ken , I will give you a simple algorithm for this mini data sample and it will spit out whatever you want " .

[kentuckydan]

Mr Ken Smutty
Are you pulling the proverbial ?
I looked at a graph which showed four "lows" but no simple pattern .
Your response was along the lines , but think "chaotically " and look underneath ......
I am happy to accept that thinking principle but do not have the maths expertise to sensibly comment .
However , it worries me that you defend "your" position on a raw data start of only four points .
I would be thinking , this is a Booker type scenario along the lines of , " Hang on a minute Ken , I will give you a simple algorithm for this mini data sample and it will spit out whatever you want " .

Ramon with complex interactions like this the smaller the sample size the more likely an incorrect conclusion will occur

Looking at your Present Cycle graph , the cold blips seem to be 3, 8, 10.25 and 18000 years ago .

One interglacial cylce is much too small a sample of the entire Climate Cycle

Look at the 500 Year graph for instance.

4 Temperaturfe Maxima and Minima, no apparent cooreleation between CO2 levels and temperature and present conditions almost identical to Permian Mass Extinction which was caused by glaciation.

The Permian mass extinction occurred about 248 million years ago and was the greatest mass extinction ever recorded in earth history; even larger than the previously discussed Ordovician and Devonian crises and the better known End Cretaceous extinction that felled the dinosaurs. Ninety to ninety-five percent of marine species were eliminated as a result of this Permian event. The primary marine and terrestrial victims included the fusulinid foraminifera, trilobites,rugose and tabulate corals, blastoids, acanthodians, placoderms, and pelycosaurs, which did not survive beyond the Permian boundary. Other groups that were substantially reduced included the bryozoans, brachiopods, ammonoids, sharks, bony fish, crinoids, eurypterids, ostracodes, and echinoderms.


Now we may disagree on the points you brought up, but I look at some of these graphs and they appear to ME as much like some of the signals I see at work on an oscilloscope when I am looking at frequency mixing.

[colomoda]

Mr Smutty ,
Thank you for your timely warning as the shops desperately regale us with their Autumn collections --- I do like the Aubergine colour look !!
We have had such chats not that long ago and I always was one of those who gravely doubted the wild and often fraudulent claims of the Earth Warming Money Making Brigade .
At school we were shown how sun spot activity led to increased short term temperature change in the last decade of a century and over the first decade of the following one -- in broad terms .
I have never seen anything which disputed that , so ERGO ............. I consider the case unproven and I am not aware that the next mini ice age is due .We apparently had one in the Middle Ages and to have another so soon after is mind boggling in terms of the wider picture . Statistically speaking that is .


I am in the fashion business, it is good time for me to buy coats :becky: My web site is..................... :p

[Lucker]

Mr Smutty ,
I can go no further , because watching my cooker for signs of blue smoke is the only incident harbinger I can handle . Oscillating frequency , indeed !!
However , I think we are agreed that the evidence for a rise in planet mean temp is unproven .
Separately , we are not impressed by the Carbon Dioxide scare mongering because it constitutes such a small part of the total equation .
And ( !! ) I remain open to the possibility of an imminent ice type period -- but in geological time as opposed to my time vision -- my life time and perhaps that of my children .
Is that reasonable ?

[1amongmany]

so what is all this Global Warming talk by Gore?

maybe he needs to log into GG and get the real information

[Lucker]

so what is all this Global Warming talk by Gore?

maybe he needs to log into GG and get the real information

It may very well turn out that awarding him the prize was the greatest error yet .
You must bear in my mind that among many matters , this area is multi billion dollar business . And people do anything for money world wide -- see current financial mess .

[Lady_An]

Guys, hang on for just a bit more. In a few billion years our dear Sun will become a red giant and we all will get pretty much warmed up :amen:

[1amongmany]

Guys, hang on for just a bit more. In a few billion years our dear Sun will become a red giant and we all will get pretty much warmed up :amen:

I'm not sure I can wait that long....:becky:

[zoroooo]

Guys, hang on for just a bit more. In a few billion years our dear Sun will become a red giant and we all will get pretty much warmed up :amen:

If I could warm you up I guess siberia will not be the same again and Dan could barbeque on the pavement of his terrase and ramondo could gain collors untill he fits eggplantfields

Aubergines in french...what size has yours?


dr love

[kentuckydan]

Mr Smutty ,
I can go no further , because watching my cooker for signs of blue smoke is the only incident harbinger I can handle . Oscillating frequency , indeed !!
However , I think we are agreed that the evidence for a rise in planet mean temp is unproven .
Separately , we are not impressed by the Carbon Dioxide scare mongering because it constitutes such a small part of the total equation .
And ( !! ) I remain open to the possibility of an imminent ice type period -- but in geological time as opposed to my time vision -- my life time and perhaps that of my children .
Is that reasonable ?

Quite reasonable, no sense quibbling over details, I think we are both in agreement
that the Title of the BBC documentary on Global Warming was accurate.

[Lady_An]

If I could warm you up I guess siberia will not be the same again and Dan could barbeque on the pavement of his terrase and ramondo could gain collors untill he fits eggplantfields

Aubergines in french...what size has yours?


dr love

Hey Doc, spanish fox are not my style.
:focus:

[kentuckydan]

If I could warm you up I guess siberia will not be the same again and Dan could barbeque on the pavement of his terrase and ramondo could gain collors untill he fits eggplantfields

Aubergines in french...what size has yours?


dr love

You are on, where I come from barbeque is in the telephone book'
under

barbeque

Not restaraunt

[Lucker]

A quick message to the YRWM
The previous is how mature males conduct interesting discussions .
No screeching .
No hysteria
No crocodile tears
No emotional blackmail .

Facts , figures and stated sources wherever reasonable .
Occasions of humour .
No personal abuse .

[zoroooo]

Hey Doc, spanish fox are not my style.
:focus:


style style fox fox and spanish ..caramba...a spainsh flie.

"lady" that should be ignorred ann as ann von Bolein..ramon help me where did she ended???






:shocked:

[Lady_An]

Pardon me for such a sacrilege.
I'm outta this Male Only Club :bolt:

[Lucker]

The day gets better

[zoroooo]

The day gets betterhave you seen a duck flying over?
or did
natalia sofia and olga sended you an invitation for the meeting of the polit bureau?:becky:

[Lucker]

You are right , Sorrow , I am feeling particularly bloody minded today .
From memory , Lady Ann is only 21 and she will not appreciate my remark was said with impish humour .
I accept I have probably ruined her life , but if , by fortune , she reads this , be aware that my comment was not personal and just reflects our rib splitting humour .

[Lady_An]

Sure, gramp, you don't care much. And she now has to live with that psychological damage all her life..

[Lucker]

Of course I care , though I will be tempted to physical violence with no shame if you call me "gramp" or anything similar .
Please find cream cakes and a sherry trifle in the post .
As for psychological damage , I come from the school which says , "Deal with it !! " .

[Lady_An]

Sounds like good old KGB schooling.
Does remind me of my.. sorry.. grandpa.
Yes, yes, I know, I am already gone :bolt: